The proposal by opposition parties in Nigeria to form a coalition aimed at unseating President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections has sparked intense debate and recent developments regarding the much-talked-about coalition raise serious doubts about its viability and strategic coherence.
From the task given to two former South-South governors to anchor discussions on whether to create a new political party or adopt an existing one as the coalition's platform already underscores the uncertainty and lack of direction among the key players.
We recall recently of reports suggesting that the coalition had settled on the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as its political vehicle, only for a swift denial to follow, deepening skepticism about its seriousness.
This unresolved confusion continues unabated. Only months ago, one of the major proponents of coalition party, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, resigned from the APC and joined the SDP, proclaiming it as the chosen party for the opposition’s grand strategy. Yet, this plan melted almost immediately after it was conceived.
With less than two years until the next general election, one would have thought that any serious political movement would have finalized its strategy by now. Forming a new political party at this stage seems impracticable, given the rigorous legal and constitutional processes required for registration, which could take nearly a year. Additionally, a newly registered party would need substantial time and resources to establish structures across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
While the idea of a united opposition front may seem appealing, a closer examination reveals significant challenges that render this endeavor highly improbable. Among these challenges in the general theater of political truth are;
- Diverse Ideologies and Interests: Nigeria's opposition parties are characterized by diverse ideologies, interests, and agendas. The likelihood of these parties putting aside their differences and working towards a common goal is slim. Each party has its own distinct vision for Nigeria's future, making it difficult to find common ground.
- Lack of Trust and Credibility: The opposition parties have been plagued by internal conflicts, leadership tussles, and allegations of corruption. These issues have eroded public trust and credibility, making it challenging for the parties to present a united front.
- Tinubu's Stronghold: President Tinubu's All Progressives Congress (APC) has a strong grip on power, with a significant presence in the National Assembly, occasioned by the massive defections to it's fold in recent times and comfortable control over many state governments. Dislodging the APC from power would require a massive shift in the political landscape, which seems unlikely given the current political dynamics.
- Electoral Challenges: Nigeria's electoral system is complex, and the opposition would need to overcome numerous hurdles, including the Independent National Electoral Commission's (INEC) regulations and the APC's established political machinery. The opposition would require a robust ground game, which they currently lack.
Truth be told, while the idea of an opposition coalition is laudable, the reality is that, unseating President Tinubu in 2027 will be an uphill task. The opposition parties need to focus on rebuilding their credibility, strengthening their internal structures, and developing a compelling narrative that resonates with Nigerians. Until then, the prospect of a successful coalition remains uncertain.
Even if the coalition opts to adopt an existing party, the enormous logistical hurdles of branding it effectively and securing widespread acceptance among voters remain daunting. Time is rapidly slipping away, and without a clear, resolute approach, the coalition risks becoming another footnote in Nigeria’s political history.
*Nelson Ogbu* is a Media/Political Affairs Consultant and the Publisher of Truepointnews Magazine/Online and he writes from Abuja, Nigeria.
26 May 2025
